Quality of earnings, 13-week cash, covenant runway, working-capital unlock and the value levers behind margin expansion and deleveraging.
Net debt of ₹1307 Cr sits at 1.90× EBITDA against the 3.0x covenant — conservative leverage held while funding distillery capex, and freeing trapped cash speeds it. Normalizing DSO to 28d releases ≈ ₹84 Cr and clears ₹55 Cr of overdue receivables, while liquidity of ₹900 Cr (≈ 7 weeks of cover) carries the cane / sugar cycle.
8 of 8 headline metrics improving vs prior · still off target: Total Revenue ₹6,151 Cr vs ₹6,800 Cr, EBITDA ₹688 Cr vs ₹820 Cr, EBITDA Margin 11.2% vs 13.0%
Cane development & recovery; maximise ethanol / by-product diversion.
FRP ₹355/q (+4%) plus SAP pressures sugar EBITDA; recovery must offset.
Sets capex headroom and refinancing risk on a conservatively levered (~1.9×) balance sheet.
Closing the DSO gap releases ≈ ₹84 Cr of one-time cash; ₹55 Cr is already >60 days overdue and at collection risk.
Monetize sugar inventory & ethanol diversion; tighten cane-to-cash.
Seasonal sugar stock lifts the cash conversion cycle to ~95 days; working capital tied up.
₹28 Cr of add-backs (4% of adj.) — the audit-grade walk.
Ethanol volume & blending vs. sugar recovery / cane development vs. gears/water growth vs. cane-cost (FRP/SAP) inflation.
Net weekly cash (bars) and ending cash (line) vs. ₹180 Cr minimum. Forecast trough: ₹256 Cr.
Net Debt/EBITDA deleveraging path against the 3.0x lender covenant ceiling.
Normalizing laggard divisions to a 50-day DSO releases ~₹31 Cr of one-time cash.
Concentrated in the newer engines (Water & Defence, Power Transmission gears, potable IMIL) and the export book where milestone billing and long O&M terms lag the mature sugar mills — the fastest cash win this fiscal year.
Ethanol & engineering (non-sugar) revenue growth and where EBITDA is generated.
Total AR ₹556 Cr
Overdue (>60d) = ₹55 Cr at collection risk.
Accounts ranked by DSO and credit/churn risk.
| Account | Revenue | DSO | Repeat | Credit/Churn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal & Industrial Water Boards | ₹200 Cr | 58d | 114% | Medium |
| Steel majors (SAIL / JSW / Tata Steel) | ₹140 Cr | 48d | 107% | Medium |
| Cement majors (UltraTech / Dalmia) | ₹160 Cr | 45d | 108% | Low |
| Indian Navy / DRDO | ₹120 Cr | 45d | 113% | Low |
| NTPC / State Power Utilities (UPPCL) | ₹380 Cr | 40d | 106% | Medium |
| State Beverage Corps & IMIL distributors | ₹300 Cr | 30d | 106% | Medium |
| Sugar traders & exporters | ₹700 Cr | 26d | 104% | Medium |
| HPCL | ₹280 Cr | 25d | 109% | Low |
| BPCL | ₹330 Cr | 24d | 110% | Low |
| IOCL (Indian Oil) | ₹520 Cr | 22d | 112% | Low |
EBITDA growth, DSO normalization and savings realization (as-scaled → current).
| Unit / subsidiary | Scaled | Revenue | EBITDA | DSO | Transform | Savings | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar | 1932 | ₹4100 Cr | 5% → ₹369 Cr | 45→33d | 100% | 90% | Integrated |
| Power Transmission (Gears) | 1968 | ₹450 Cr | 15% → ₹81 Cr | 55→45d | 90% | 84% | In progress |
| Bagasse Co-generation | 1995 | ₹350 Cr | 20% → ₹77 Cr | 40→34d | 100% | 88% | Integrated |
| Water & Defence | 2004 | ₹251 Cr | 8% → ₹23 Cr | 65→52d | 70% | 60% | In progress |
| Alcohol / Distillery (Ethanol) | 2007 | ₹1350 Cr | 12% → ₹216 Cr | 30→24d | 88% | 80% | In progress |
| Triveni Turbine (sister co) | 2011 | ₹2181 Cr | 18% → ₹527 Cr | 60→55d | 100% | 100% | Integrated |
| Potable Alcohol / IMIL | 2015 | ₹300 Cr | 10% → ₹40 Cr | 35→30d | 82% | 72% | In progress |
Input & tooling spend, DPO (working-capital lever), delivery and risk.
| Supplier | Category | Spend | DPO | OTIF | Score | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugarcane — farmers & cane societies (UP) | Sugarcane (primary input) | ₹2900 Cr | 14d | 92% | 84 | High |
| Coal & fuel (boilers / co-gen) | Coal & fuel | ₹180 Cr | 45d | 94% | 82 | Medium |
| Steel, forgings & castings (gears / turbines) | Steel & forgings | ₹150 Cr | 55d | 91% | 86 | Medium |
| Chemicals, enzymes & process aids | Chemicals & enzymes | ₹140 Cr | 50d | 93% | 85 | Medium |
| Packaging (sugar bags, ethanol logistics) | Packaging & logistics | ₹120 Cr | 48d | 90% | 83 | Low |
| Power, stores & MRO | Power, stores & MRO | ₹110 Cr | 40d | 95% | 82 | Medium |